Ukraine - on the edge of what and when?

Still far too much bluster and not enough Realpolitik being talked over Ukraine. The ethnic Russian capture of Debaltsyevo was not nice to watch but was unquestionably necessary for the ceasefire to stand any chance of lasting.

This may sound absurd, justifying fighting a day after a ceasefire is due to come into effect, but often you need a day or two to calm things down. A ceasefire with an armed enclave inside inside one territory is a festering boil waiting to burst.

The talks in Minsk almost certainly touched in this but what they said was not made public. I believe Putin demanded the territory and Poroschenko refused but all four parties knew that today's events would take place: after all in the end the Ukrainians retreated, again almost certainly according to plan.

The ceasefire depends on a form of devolution/self-rule for the eastern territories within current international frontiers. That was never going to happen if the territories in question were not coherent. All today's hand-wringing has been posturing. Putin decided he could take the PR hit and will now press the 'Rebels' to maintain the ceasefire in the hope of an eventual autonomy solution.

I may well be wrong but I predict that as from tomorrow the ceasefire will hold at least until talks on autonomy for the eastern regions succeed or fail. Watch this space. I shall apologise if wrong!