Saturday 21 February 2015

Debaltsyevo... a necessary victory or step on the way to war?

Amidst the uproar over the siege and capture of Debaltsyevo, the debate remains as to whether it means the end of the major fighting and the beginning of the ceasefire, or whether victory will go to the heads of ethnic Russian combatants who will see it as an excuse to press forward.
I hope the former is true, if only because I believed that it was necessary for the Russian faction to take the town in order to establish a front line that could become a 'frontier' for whatever regional autonomy is to be granted to the eastern Ukrainians. Without some such autonomy the region is doomed to further conflict which can end only in partial annexation by Russia or total conquest by western Ukrainian forces which will mean a mass exodus of millions to Russia.
Nobody in the 'western' commentariat seems to take much notice of the wishes of those inhabitants who have not taken up arms. A monitored referendum on devolution, separatism or acceptance of central rule from Ki'iv/Kiev might once have settled the problem. It is too late for that now.
But the Minsk plan was and is based on the principle of self-determination for the people of the east and that means a border line of sorts which cannot be created while there are armed enclaves on the map. Therefore Debaltsyevo had to be sorted out before there was any hope of peace.
But victory can encourage recklessness. Now is the time to implement the ceasefire and military withdrawals on both sides, so that the front line can become an internal Ukrainian frontier and in time an administrative border, nothing more. The only alternative is that it remains a military front line and in time an international frontier.

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