British Influence

Terribly afraid we could cause a European disaster. Too may Britons have no idea how much our membership of the EU matters not just to our economy but to our standing in the world and, more importantly, to the concept of lasting peace in Europe. Today joined British Influence, one of few sane groups who might help stop us going off the wall! 

Blinded by the signs

Terrible feat UK walking backwards out of Europe. The campaign to stay in faces an uphill struggle. Have you noticed how for a decade now passport controls at UK airports say British AND EU passports as though British were NOT EU passports. Unimaginable in any other EU country.'German AND EU' I don't think so!!

I asked a border force official at Gatwick about this and she laughed and said 'they don't understand'. 'But you do,' I countered. 'Oh yes,' she smiled, 'but I'm Polish, we know we are in the EU!' 

Scary 

Innsbruck nights

A few short days in Innsbruck after skiing in Lech. The Tyrol capital as strange welcoming and superficially quiet as ever. Those mountains at the end of every street still take the breath away, like a backdrop to some 18th century opera. Found the town's one brew pub, the Theresienbraeu, great beer but too much of a smokey disco on a Saturday night. Austria could give a lesson to all those who say we are dictated to from Brussels! Haha! 

Went on to discover a great city centre local having a laid back jazz night, then a multi beer bar from the Krah Krah people I first came across in Vienna 20 years ago! Ate earlier at the Goldenes Dachl next to 16th century mini palace of Holy Roman Emperor Maximulian I. 

Nonsense reminiscent of 1914

Fearful hysteria being talked by the numpties in UK government swallowed whole by even Channel 4. Neither Britain's foreign or defence ministers, both monoglot party apparatchiks,!have any understanding of today's world. The 1988-99 peace dividend has been squandered. Ukraine has been dealt with by knee jerk rather than analysis. Armchair generals eager for their own grandisement spin threads they know nothing of. I fear for our future with idiots like this in charge! Thank God for Obama while we have him. 

The isolated island! Schengen NOW!

Arriving back in UK from European mainland as depressing as ever. Infrastructure appalling. Ridiculous petty border controls which make it harder for us Europeans to get into own country than it would be if we had flown from Iraq or Syria. There is. I sensible reason why the UK should not be party to the Schengen free movement agreement although it is not going to  happen any time in the current climate of xenophobia. Immigration is about settlement in a country, not punishing everybody who lands here or passes through. Fly between any other Europe countries - including Norway, Switzerland and Iceland (those darlings of the Europhobes) and there are no stony faced officials or electronic cameras, gathering pentabytes of unusable information. The UK has become a security state to rival anything the Stasi ever dreamt of. 

Heads not so much in the sand but up our own backsides. Literally!

Simply appalling to reaf and listen to the twaddle being spouted by political and and lapped up by newspapers over the so-called immigration crisis.

The barely speakable truth is that what is most discomfiting to the likes of ukip supporters and even members of the wider populace is what has caused demonstrations in Germany and other countries: the influx of Islamic migrants who not only refuse to assimilate but strive to become dominant in particular areas and force local inhabitants to assimilate to their rules. This is self-inflicted ghettoisation and must be widely resisted.

Farage and co play on this in cynical and perverse ways: lashing out at 'unlimited immigration from the eu' (he means from the rest of the eu, but Britain has written itself out already), when virtually none of the eu migrants are Muslim. 

Most Poles, Latvians etc, yes, including Romanians, are happy to integrate with their British fellow EU citizens, as people in London where they mostly live, will testify. This multi-faceted European society is happy in and with itself. The vast majority of those voting in fear of being 'overrun' live in areas with almost no immigrants.. They could do with a wider window on the world!

Nor are most immigrants here forever. Unlike the primordial British received opinion the UK is NOT the 'best country in the world' to live in. All those British expats in Spain, France, Portugal and even Germany are not there just for the weather. Health services are good, housing and living costs lower, the style and pace of life more pleasant. Don't say 'why don't you live there then?' I do, spending time in Spain, Germany and Austria every year. I also like Britain and the British but the country has become less and less friendly. It is now as intimidating to enter as arast Germany once was (I lived there too) and in the same way to its own citizens, except perversely when they enter. 

Our ridiculous expensive 'border controls ' are insulting and ineffective. Unless we leave the EU all our fellow Europeans can still enter freely. As forrvt 'war in terror', the only terrorist attacks on UK soil over the past 40 years have been carried out by native-born Britons (7/7 - see above in ghettoisation) and citizens of the Irish Republic, with which we have not only a totally open but unmarked border. While we waste millions at GB airports, anyone who wants to skip across fhe line need only fly into Dublin, he waved through, and catch the train to Belfast. 

Beware Germans bearing gifts

Great decision by the Bundestag today to back loan extension to Greece. No further concession needed. Now it's up to Syriza to see if they can live with it. It's a great game of chess, but in the end economics will win. Germany has (re)drawn its wiggly line in the sand, generously, but the line is still there. It's now up to the Greeks to decide if they want to cross it. Interesting times. We will either see a strong global currency or a failed experiment. Against the flow, my bet is still on the former. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

Dim Dave, Putin's pal

Well done dim Dave!! Nobody consulted you on EU Ukraine ceasefire negotiations so you send in UK advisers off your own bat! You know nothing about Slavic history. You have had no orders for Obama, but you have an election to fight. Libya was a disaster and helped spread Islamic state but you pretend it wasn't your fault. Stupid kids! No education 

Great, Brexit, Spexit, can we stop these ugly terms?

So we might still see a Grexit, and maybe within two years a Brexit, what next a Spexit, Slexit or Swexit? Can we stop this nonsense. This is just crap journalism, descending to Daily Mail and Sun standards. What if Italy left ,or Ireland: Itexit, Irexit (the former sounds like an sms message, the latter an escape from anger)? Above terms could be used in the case of Spain, Slovenis or Sweden.
How about Posit? Portugal or Poland, take your pick. Czexit?
 Lixet for Lithuania? Laxit (for Latvia) or should that be Laxative? And what bout poor old Estonia which would just be Exit. Finland? (Mr) Fixit (though it would by then be more than just broken). Malxit? Sounds like a bedtime drink or a craft brew.
I suppose poor old Croatia, the EU's newest proud member would end up doing a Crexit, though most idiots who write this stuff would confuse the last with an (impossible) exit of Crete on its own, adding a new definition of cretins: the idiots who think ugly shorthand is a clever way to report on events of importance which they don't really understand.

Debaltsyevo... a necessary victory or step on the way to war?

Amidst the uproar over the siege and capture of Debaltsyevo, the debate remains as to whether it means the end of the major fighting and the beginning of the ceasefire, or whether victory will go to the heads of ethnic Russian combatants who will see it as an excuse to press forward.
I hope the former is true, if only because I believed that it was necessary for the Russian faction to take the town in order to establish a front line that could become a 'frontier' for whatever regional autonomy is to be granted to the eastern Ukrainians. Without some such autonomy the region is doomed to further conflict which can end only in partial annexation by Russia or total conquest by western Ukrainian forces which will mean a mass exodus of millions to Russia.
Nobody in the 'western' commentariat seems to take much notice of the wishes of those inhabitants who have not taken up arms. A monitored referendum on devolution, separatism or acceptance of central rule from Ki'iv/Kiev might once have settled the problem. It is too late for that now.
But the Minsk plan was and is based on the principle of self-determination for the people of the east and that means a border line of sorts which cannot be created while there are armed enclaves on the map. Therefore Debaltsyevo had to be sorted out before there was any hope of peace.
But victory can encourage recklessness. Now is the time to implement the ceasefire and military withdrawals on both sides, so that the front line can become an internal Ukrainian frontier and in time an administrative border, nothing more. The only alternative is that it remains a military front line and in time an international frontier.

In Germany ein Vertrag ist ein Vertrag. In Greek please?

Not as surprised as the markets and banks by Berlin's veto on Greece's request for a new loan. The Tsipiras government thought they had pulled a fast one by technically agreeing to ask for an extension is the current deal, but implying that they had no real intention of continuing the current cuts. Everyone else was just about happy to go along with it for the moment to avert an instant crisis. But it has long been my opinion that Germany has drawn a - possibly wiggly - line in the sand; but a line no less. There has been agreement between Frankfurt and Berlin that the single currency might need precisely such a test as this to survive long term. In other words they may not WANT the Greeks to leave the €  but have worked out that Greece is the best subject to test the rules on, and make clear that it's either the same rules for everybody or its back to doing money on your own. I do not see Wolfgang Schaeuble backing down. The Greeks might get money but they will have to offer more than vague promises. Merkel can do a Thatcher 'the lady's not for turning ' on this one. 

Ukraine - on the edge of what and when?

Still far too much bluster and not enough Realpolitik being talked over Ukraine. The ethnic Russian capture of Debaltsyevo was not nice to watch but was unquestionably necessary for the ceasefire to stand any chance of lasting.

This may sound absurd, justifying fighting a day after a ceasefire is due to come into effect, but often you need a day or two to calm things down. A ceasefire with an armed enclave inside inside one territory is a festering boil waiting to burst.

The talks in Minsk almost certainly touched in this but what they said was not made public. I believe Putin demanded the territory and Poroschenko refused but all four parties knew that today's events would take place: after all in the end the Ukrainians retreated, again almost certainly according to plan.

The ceasefire depends on a form of devolution/self-rule for the eastern territories within current international frontiers. That was never going to happen if the territories in question were not coherent. All today's hand-wringing has been posturing. Putin decided he could take the PR hit and will now press the 'Rebels' to maintain the ceasefire in the hope of an eventual autonomy solution.

I may well be wrong but I predict that as from tomorrow the ceasefire will hold at least until talks on autonomy for the eastern regions succeed or fail. Watch this space. I shall apologise if wrong!

ALL GREEK TO ALL OF US

Fascinated with Greek bailout renegotiation - or however Tsipiras wants to call it. The solution, whatever it will be, including the possible Greek exit (hate the Gr... Br.. exit sloppy shorthands0 may well be the salvation and consolidation of the € as a global currency. Germany, t Netherlands etc have been preparing this since last Greek crisis. They will play it to the wire, but when it comes to blinking first, I really wonder if M Tsipiras is really ready to declare his country bankrupt and take it out of the €. I doubt it. This is a game of chicken being played with massive stakes. I am sure the Greek people are ready to take the risk, but I doubt very much if they are prepared for the circumstances. The worst thing the € zone could do would be to cave in to Greek 'democratic' blackmail: nobody is denying the power of Greek democracy, but taking brave decisions means braving the consequences. Interesting few days ahead.

UKIP the worst 100 days

C4 mockymentary 'UKIP a the first 100 days' scarily near the knuckle except it focussed too much on Asians being deported. In reality it would be fellow Europeans who share our mistrust of fanatical Islam. As ever - cf Iraq, Libya - our dumb politicians jump the wrong way!

Let and hindrance

Is it time we reworded the much vaunted formula on UK passports. Once you get past the pompous guff about 'Her Britannic Majesty's Secretary of State' there is a phrase requesting that the bearer should be allowed to pass without 'let or hindrance'. Yet throughout nearly all of Europe the only 'hindrance' between Bognor and Belarus is that imposed by her said Majesty's East German-style 'border guards'. It's embarrassing and annoying enough without the hypocrisy. 

Brave New World

Great work by Merkel and Hollander. It may of course yet all go wrong if autonomy for East Ukraine not accepted by Ki'iv or if Americans fuel the embers. Worst of all has been spectacle of David Cameron left out of the loop. Washington already sees UK as fast becoming irrelevant if outside Europe. We should have been part of this and at least should not snipe from the sidelines. Brav, Angela and well done for taking Francois along. At least you also have the common sense to say it is only a glimmer of hope! 

Rebirth

This blog has been dormant too long. As of today it come back to life! The issues are too serious to be taken for granted!