In Germany ein Vertrag ist ein Vertrag. In Greek please?

Not as surprised as the markets and banks by Berlin's veto on Greece's request for a new loan. The Tsipiras government thought they had pulled a fast one by technically agreeing to ask for an extension is the current deal, but implying that they had no real intention of continuing the current cuts. Everyone else was just about happy to go along with it for the moment to avert an instant crisis. But it has long been my opinion that Germany has drawn a - possibly wiggly - line in the sand; but a line no less. There has been agreement between Frankfurt and Berlin that the single currency might need precisely such a test as this to survive long term. In other words they may not WANT the Greeks to leave the €  but have worked out that Greece is the best subject to test the rules on, and make clear that it's either the same rules for everybody or its back to doing money on your own. I do not see Wolfgang Schaeuble backing down. The Greeks might get money but they will have to offer more than vague promises. Merkel can do a Thatcher 'the lady's not for turning ' on this one. 

Ukraine - on the edge of what and when?

Still far too much bluster and not enough Realpolitik being talked over Ukraine. The ethnic Russian capture of Debaltsyevo was not nice to watch but was unquestionably necessary for the ceasefire to stand any chance of lasting.

This may sound absurd, justifying fighting a day after a ceasefire is due to come into effect, but often you need a day or two to calm things down. A ceasefire with an armed enclave inside inside one territory is a festering boil waiting to burst.

The talks in Minsk almost certainly touched in this but what they said was not made public. I believe Putin demanded the territory and Poroschenko refused but all four parties knew that today's events would take place: after all in the end the Ukrainians retreated, again almost certainly according to plan.

The ceasefire depends on a form of devolution/self-rule for the eastern territories within current international frontiers. That was never going to happen if the territories in question were not coherent. All today's hand-wringing has been posturing. Putin decided he could take the PR hit and will now press the 'Rebels' to maintain the ceasefire in the hope of an eventual autonomy solution.

I may well be wrong but I predict that as from tomorrow the ceasefire will hold at least until talks on autonomy for the eastern regions succeed or fail. Watch this space. I shall apologise if wrong!

ALL GREEK TO ALL OF US

Fascinated with Greek bailout renegotiation - or however Tsipiras wants to call it. The solution, whatever it will be, including the possible Greek exit (hate the Gr... Br.. exit sloppy shorthands0 may well be the salvation and consolidation of the € as a global currency. Germany, t Netherlands etc have been preparing this since last Greek crisis. They will play it to the wire, but when it comes to blinking first, I really wonder if M Tsipiras is really ready to declare his country bankrupt and take it out of the €. I doubt it. This is a game of chicken being played with massive stakes. I am sure the Greek people are ready to take the risk, but I doubt very much if they are prepared for the circumstances. The worst thing the € zone could do would be to cave in to Greek 'democratic' blackmail: nobody is denying the power of Greek democracy, but taking brave decisions means braving the consequences. Interesting few days ahead.

UKIP the worst 100 days

C4 mockymentary 'UKIP a the first 100 days' scarily near the knuckle except it focussed too much on Asians being deported. In reality it would be fellow Europeans who share our mistrust of fanatical Islam. As ever - cf Iraq, Libya - our dumb politicians jump the wrong way!

Let and hindrance

Is it time we reworded the much vaunted formula on UK passports. Once you get past the pompous guff about 'Her Britannic Majesty's Secretary of State' there is a phrase requesting that the bearer should be allowed to pass without 'let or hindrance'. Yet throughout nearly all of Europe the only 'hindrance' between Bognor and Belarus is that imposed by her said Majesty's East German-style 'border guards'. It's embarrassing and annoying enough without the hypocrisy. 

Brave New World

Great work by Merkel and Hollander. It may of course yet all go wrong if autonomy for East Ukraine not accepted by Ki'iv or if Americans fuel the embers. Worst of all has been spectacle of David Cameron left out of the loop. Washington already sees UK as fast becoming irrelevant if outside Europe. We should have been part of this and at least should not snipe from the sidelines. Brav, Angela and well done for taking Francois along. At least you also have the common sense to say it is only a glimmer of hope! 

Rebirth

This blog has been dormant too long. As of today it come back to life! The issues are too serious to be taken for granted!